Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 17 | 26.3 | 10.8% | 280 | 2.43% |
| 10-19 | 21 | 32.0 | 12.6% | 326 | 2.4% |
| 20-29 | 28 | 51.6 | 19.5% | 505 | 2.41% |
| 30-39 | 32 | 52.4 | 20.3% | 524 | 3.85% |
| 40-49 | 18 | 32.7 | 13.5% | 350 | 3.34% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 28.9 | 11.4% | 295 | 2.35% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 17.4 | 7% | 181 | 1.57% |
| 70+ | 8 | 12.3 | 4.8% | 124 | 1.18% |
| All ages | 146 | 253.6 | 100% | 2585 | 2.47% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19 | 26253 | 70881 | 653 | 170 | 3509 |
| Jan 20 | 26579 | 71128 | 654 | 170 | 3388 |
| Jan 21 | 26877 | 71359 | 655 | 171 | 3430 |
| Jan 22 | 27083 | 71494 | 656 | 171 | 3155 |
| Jan 23 | 27241 | 71576 | 656 | 171 | 2733 |
| Jan 24 | 27461 | 71669 | 656 | 171 | 2619 |
| Jan 25 | 27607 | 71820 | 660 | 171 | 2585 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19 | 16526 | 40807 | 640 | 155 | 1993 |
| Jan 20 | 16729 | 40932 | 642 | 155 | 2052 |
| Jan 21 | 16884 | 41050 | 642 | 155 | 2035 |
| Jan 22 | 17011 | 41120 | 645 | 155 | 1753 |
| Jan 23 | 17117 | 41177 | 645 | 155 | 1520 |
| Jan 24 | 17308 | 41295 | 646 | 156 | 1541 |
| Jan 25 | 17405 | 41377 | 651 | 157 | 1541 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 13.6 | 9.6% | 148 | 1.91% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 20.3 | 12.7% | 196 | 2.33% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 23.6 | 14.7% | 227 | 3.19% |
| 30-39 | 20 | 32.9 | 20.9% | 322 | 3.83% |
| 40-49 | 18 | 27.4 | 16.4% | 253 | 3.26% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 21.3 | 12.9% | 199 | 2.05% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 11.0 | 6.9% | 107 | 1.27% |
| 70+ | 5 | 9.6 | 5.7% | 88 | 1.24% |
| All ages | 97 | 159.6 | 100% | 1541 | 2.38% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19 | 12082 | 27149 | 498 | 124 | 892 |
| Jan 20 | 12194 | 27231 | 500 | 124 | 955 |
| Jan 21 | 12306 | 27289 | 500 | 124 | 1013 |
| Jan 22 | 12383 | 27340 | 501 | 124 | 959 |
| Jan 23 | 12431 | 27394 | 501 | 124 | 842 |
| Jan 24 | 12486 | 27425 | 505 | 124 | 807 |
| Jan 25 | 12567 | 27494 | 509 | 124 | 795 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 11 | 8.0 | 9.7% | 77 | 1.42% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 11.1 | 13.8% | 110 | 2.03% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 10.3 | 12.5% | 99 | 2.19% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 14.0 | 17% | 135 | 2.49% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 13.0 | 14.7% | 117 | 2.35% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 10.0 | 11.8% | 94 | 1.39% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 9.6 | 11.1% | 88 | 1.39% |
| 70+ | 8 | 7.9 | 9.4% | 75 | 1.18% |
| All ages | 81 | 83.9 | 100% | 795 | 1.76% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19 | 29748 | 85902 | 920 | 150 | 4560 |
| Jan 20 | 30293 | 86261 | 920 | 150 | 4866 |
| Jan 21 | 30587 | 86525 | 922 | 150 | 4691 |
| Jan 22 | 30781 | 86679 | 925 | 150 | 4207 |
| Jan 23 | 30911 | 86813 | 928 | 150 | 3496 |
| Jan 24 | 31325 | 86965 | 928 | 150 | 3569 |
| Jan 25 | 31600 | 87339 | 927 | 151 | 3540 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 41 | 55.4 | 15.2% | 538 | 4.55% |
| 10-19 | 65 | 69.1 | 19.8% | 702 | 4.24% |
| 20-29 | 31 | 50.0 | 14.7% | 519 | 2.44% |
| 30-39 | 41 | 62.0 | 17.1% | 604 | 4.44% |
| 40-49 | 36 | 44.0 | 13.3% | 470 | 3.46% |
| 50-59 | 35 | 35.0 | 9.9% | 350 | 2.47% |
| 60-69 | 17 | 20.7 | 6% | 212 | 1.49% |
| 70+ | 8 | 14.4 | 4.1% | 144 | 1.11% |
| All ages | 275 | 350.9 | 100% | 3540 | 2.99% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19 | 106158 | 475442 | 2453 | 449 | 28978 |
| Jan 20 | 107664 | 476854 | 2456 | 450 | 29787 |
| Jan 21 | 108713 | 477885 | 2467 | 450 | 30017 |
| Jan 22 | 109500 | 478637 | 2475 | 450 | 29760 |
| Jan 23 | 110186 | 479399 | 2476 | 450 | 28263 |
| Jan 24 | 110880 | 480073 | 2481 | 450 | 27105 |
| Jan 25 | 111821 | 481018 | 2492 | 452 | 27185 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 180 | 206.3 | 11.2% | 3036 | 5.05% |
| 10-19 | 155 | 209.0 | 14.9% | 4039 | 5.68% |
| 20-29 | 129 | 193.3 | 19.5% | 5306 | 5.11% |
| 30-39 | 156 | 219.3 | 19.2% | 5217 | 6.82% |
| 40-49 | 131 | 175.9 | 15.1% | 4099 | 6.25% |
| 50-59 | 97 | 120.6 | 10.6% | 2876 | 4.38% |
| 60-69 | 49 | 73.0 | 5.9% | 1593 | 2.91% |
| 70+ | 43 | 46.1 | 3.6% | 989 | 2.01% |
| All ages | 941 | 1244.3 | 100% | 27185 | 4.97% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19 | 1432782 | 3999877 | 58523 | 12068 | 204117 |
| Jan 20 | 1445871 | 4010087 | 58628 | 12079 | 201770 |
| Jan 21 | 1457397 | 4019232 | 58737 | 12090 | 198824 |
| Jan 22 | 1464875 | 4026092 | 58804 | 12099 | 188362 |
| Jan 23 | 1470262 | 4031483 | 58863 | 12105 | 168641 |
| Jan 24 | 1477323 | 4036796 | 58925 | 12112 | 157498 |
| Jan 25 | 1486054 | 4045184 | 59084 | 12155 | 150670 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1238 | 1268.1 | 10.1% | 15231 | 2.38% |
| 10-19 | 1314 | 1570.3 | 13.5% | 20364 | 2.69% |
| 20-29 | 1091 | 1455.1 | 16.9% | 25417 | 3.36% |
| 30-39 | 1449 | 1748.6 | 18.2% | 27378 | 3.62% |
| 40-49 | 1257 | 1467.4 | 15.1% | 22704 | 3.25% |
| 50-59 | 1057 | 1245.4 | 12.6% | 18954 | 2.33% |
| 60-69 | 756 | 838.7 | 8.1% | 12231 | 1.62% |
| 70+ | 560 | 599.1 | 5.4% | 8186 | 1.28% |
| All ages | 8731 | 10203.0 | 100% | 150670 | 2.59% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-02-16 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 13260"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges